The global economy is projected to decelerate in 2026, with GDP growth expected to slip from 3.3% in 2025 to 3.0% this year, according to analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 on its strongest economic footing in a decade, only to see that momentum threatened by the disruption to global fuel supplies triggered by the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. The IMF has trimmed its 2026 growth forecast for the region to 4.3%, warning that output could fall by twice as much if the conflict becomes protracted. Read the IMF report on the Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.
The crisis is also accelerating a structural shift, with the Iran war spurring a surge in renewable energy deals across the continent as governments move to reduce dependence on Gulf oil and gas. But the broader lesson, as the IMF noted, is how quickly external shocks can erase hard-won domestic gains, a pattern now repeated through COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the current Middle East conflict. For sub-Saharan Africa, building resilience is no longer a long-term policy aspiration; it has once again become an immediate and urgent test.
The full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is seen as a critical tool, one that could shorten supply chains for energy, food, and other essential goods, reduce dependence on volatile global markets, and boost value-addition for commodities produced on the continent.
For a deeper analysis of the commercial and legal dimensions of this crisis, ALN has published its Africa at the Chokepoint series, which examines how the Strait of Hormuz closure is reverberating across African economies.